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Median APY
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Highest position median
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Impact per $1M APY
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DSA composite score
Player Contract Analyzer
Find Your Next Contract Target
Search for any NFL player to instantly view their contract details, performance metrics, and receive data-driven negotiation recommendations based on position-specific market curves.
Contract Analysis
Current APY vs. expected market range
Impact Metrics
Performance impact and efficiency ratings
Negotiation Target
Data-driven APY recommendations
Player Rankings
Understanding NFL Contract Markets
What the Data Is Actually Showing
NFL contract markets are threshold-driven and uneven. In this dataset, Contract_APY is extremely top-heavy: Top 10% of contracts capture ~51% of all Contract_APY dollars, Top 5% capture ~34%, and Top 1% capture ~11%. Most players sit in a crowded middle, while a small set of contracts break out into a different tier. ImpactCap is designed to surface that reality — not smooth it over.
Why Impact Alone Doesn't Predict Contract_APY
On-field impact matters — but it explains only a modest share of contract outcomes. Among players where we have both metrics (Impact + Contract_APY), the relationship is real but not strong: Pearson correlation ~0.31, Spearman ~0.44. Impact helps set the floor, but market dynamics and scarcity determine the ceiling. Two players with similar impact often land in very different Contract_APY tiers.
Position Sets the Market Ceiling
Positions don't just influence value — they define what's even possible. In the data, the ceiling is visibly different by position: QB 90th percentile ~$52.5M (max $60M), WR/DL/OL upper tiers commonly reach $28M–$45M, while RB/LB have materially lower ceilings (even with strong impact), and K/P/LS are structurally capped markets.
- Show medians instead of averages
- Compare within position groups
- Separate expected outcomes from upside scenarios
This is why ImpactCap's design is right for NFL contract analysis.
Why the Market Feels Like a Hockey Stick
The Contract_APY distribution has a classic hockey stick profile: Median ~$1.42M, 75th percentile ~$4.50M, 90th percentile ~$13.28M, 95th percentile ~$21.18M, 99th percentile ~$45M, Max $60M. Most players live in a flat middle, and a small number cross thresholds that trigger explosive growth. Hockey-stick outcomes are rare contracts, not a normal progression path.
Why Efficiency Matters More Than Star Power
High Contract_APY spend doesn't guarantee high return. Efficiency (Impact per $1M Contract_APY) is negatively related to Contract_APY (Spearman ≈ -0.52). Median efficiency is about 0.15 impact per $1M, while the most efficient players reach roughly 0.80–0.95 impact per $1M. Many of the best returns per dollar sit below the top of the APY leaderboard. Star contracts often function as risk reduction and scarcity capture, not efficiency maximization.
- Efficiency is negatively correlated with Contract_APY
- Best value often found in mid-tier contracts
- Portfolio construction beats star chasing
This is why ImpactCap frames contracts like portfolio construction — not star chasing.
How We Model Fair Market Value
- Most players cluster near the median — breakout NIL outcomes are exceptions, not the rule
- Impact alone does not predict NIL; visibility and position determine upside
- Position defines ceilings — not all impact is rewarded equally
- High NIL spend reduces risk, but efficiency is found lower in the market
- Undervalued players exist because markets price attention faster than performance
- Smart NIL strategy looks like portfolio construction, not betting on stars